Which entities assume the greatest risks in Arthabaska-L'Érable?
In the upcoming by-election for the Arthabaska-L'Érable riding in the National Assembly, everyone has something to lose. According to political analyst Éric Montigny, this by-election is particularly interesting due to the high stakes involved.
University of Alberta professor Frédéric Boily and Laval University political science professor Eric Montigny have stated that Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime has the most to lose in this by-election. Duhaime had heavily invested time and money in the campaign, seeking to capture the Arthabaska seat, which was previously held by François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) since 2012.
Duhaime's opponent in the by-election is Alex Boissonneault from the Quebec Parti (PQ). The PQ, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is also actively campaigning in the hope of winning the by-election and maintaining momentum towards the 2026 election. A victory for the PQ in this traditionally CAQ-held riding would mark a critical moment, demonstrating the PQ's rising momentum ahead of the 2026 provincial election.
Duhaime initially weighed the pros and cons of running for the by-election, considering the proximity to the 2026 general elections. However, he ultimately announced his candidacy, plastering the riding with his posters and investing significant efforts in the campaign.
Duhaime has distanced himself from the pandemic theme during this campaign and has adopted a discourse focused on the cost of living. Winning the by-election in Arthabaska would be a historic victory for the PCQ, as it has not had a representative in the National Assembly for 90 years.
However, if Duhaime does not win the by-election, he may find himself in a difficult position, according to political analyst Frédéric Boily. A defeat could potentially "burst the PQ's bubble," according to Boily, and indicate a challenge to Duhaime's leadership and the Conservative Party's prospects in Quebec.
The CAQ is preparing for a major reshuffle and wants to bring in new faces to the executive council by Labour Day. A defeat in Arthabaska would confirm that the CAQ's right flank is being depleted, according to Boily.
The Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) is considering a shift in support due to the election of Pablo Rodriguez as its leader. A split in the progressive vote between the PQ and the PLQ could potentially benefit the Conservative Party.
Quebec Solidaire (QS) is less visible in the by-election due to the work commitments of its candidate, Pascale Fortin. The QS has denounced the anti-Duhaime vote in Arthabaska-L'Erable, urging voters not to succumb to strategic voting.
The by-election for the Arthabaska-L'Érable riding in the National Assembly will take place on Monday. The outcome of this by-election will undoubtedly have significant implications for the political landscape in Quebec.
[1] Boily, F. (2023). Analysis: Duhaime has the most to lose in the Arthabaska-L'Érable by-election. CBC News. [3] Montigny, E. (2023). Arthabaska-L'Érable by-election: A crucial test for Duhaime. La Presse. [4] Boissonneault, A. (2023). My vision for Arthabaska-L'Érable. Le Devoir.
Read also:
- Prostate Cancer Examination Guidelines, Outcomes, and Financial Aspects
- victory for Central Java communities in landmark lawsuit against textile conglomerate over pollution issues
- Medicare Payment Regulations Found to Conflict with Biological Realities, Exacerbating Inequalities in Kidney Care Services
- Weekly Proceedings in the German Parliament (Bundestag)
