Title: Shocking 5% Increase in Freshman Enrollment Documents NSCRC Report
College freshman enrollment soared by an astounding 5.5% this past fall, amounting to approximately 130,000 additional students, as reported by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC). This surprising increase represents a complete reversal of an earlier estimate, which suggested a 5% decline in freshman enrollment based on a sample of institutions. The NSCRC eventually acknowledged this initial estimate was misleading due to a "methodological error" involving the misclassification of certain students as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen.
The current data was gathered from the "vast majority" of participating institutions, as confirmed by NSCRC officials. This enrollment surge contributed to a 4.7% (about 716,000 students) increase in undergraduate enrollment nationally, and a 4.5% gain (+817,000 students) in total enrollment. As a result, the total number of college students now exceeds 19 million, approximately 0.5% above pre-pandemic levels in fall 2019. Freshman enrollment has also surpassed initial 2019 levels by approximately 1%.
Graduate enrollment grew to 3.2 million, increasing by 3.3% and accounting for an additional 100,000 students. The most significant growth was observed at community colleges, which added 63,000 freshmen (7.1% increase).
"It's heartening to see total postsecondary student numbers exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time this fall," commented Doug Shapiro, executive director of the NSCRC. "It's also uplifting that freshman enrollment has increased, particularly due to the rise in older first-year students," he added.
Each of the major higher education sectors experienced growth in enrollments. Private, for-profit institutions yielded the most substantial percentage increase at 7.5%. They were followed by public, two-year colleges (5.8%), private, nonprofit schools (3.8%), and public four-year institutions (3.1%).
Undergraduate certificate program enrollments saw growth for the fourth consecutive year, surging by 9.9% (+101,000 students). These programs now represent a 28.5% increase in enrollments compared to 2019. Enrollments in bachelor’s and associate’s degree programs also increased, but both remained below 2019 levels. Public two-year institutions concentrated on vocational programs experienced double-digit growth for the second consecutive year and now represent 19.5% of enrollments in these colleges.
Enrollment growth was evident across genders and racial/ethnic categories. Male and female undergraduates showed similar enrollment gains, led by 6.8% increases for both Black and Hispanic students. Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, multiracial students, Asians, Native Americans, and white students followed with smaller gains. International student enrollment saw a substantial 9.3% increase.
Enrollment gains were recorded for students in every family income quintile, with the bottom quintile leading the way by increasing 7.3%, while students from families in the top income quintile grew by 3.5%. At the graduate level, enrollments also increased across all racial/ethnic groups, with Hispanic, Black, Asian, multiracial, and international students all growing by more than 8%. White student enrollment increased by 2.5%.
Enrollment surged across all regions, and most states recorded increases in enrollments. Institutions in the Northeast, South, and West gained similar levels, followed by the Midwest. North Carolina and Tennessee were standout states, with undergraduate enrollments increasing by 10.9% and 8.3%, respectively. Nebraska and Vermont registered losses below 1%.
The upbeat enrollment news has lessened the gloom caused by the NSCRC's earlier, but incorrect, data indicating a decline in freshman entrance. However, the center is now considering discontinuing their preliminary enrollment reports, according to retiring CEO Ricardo Torres of the NSCRC. These reports were initiated in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic to offer timely enrollment assessments, but their continued relevance is being questioned.
Attention now turns to whether colleges can sustain this enrollment progress amid the approaching "demographic cliff," which predicts a double-digit decline in high school graduates during the next 15 years. Additionally, querying the value of postsecondary education, a greater number of non-traditional advanced education choices, and the continuing shift away from college degrees as a job requirement necessitate further downward pressures on college enrollments.
Sources:[1] National Student Clearinghouse Research Center[2] Inside Higher Ed[3] WSJ.com[4] EducationDive.com
The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) reported a 7.1% increase in freshman enrollment at community colleges, contributing to their total of 63,000 additional freshmen. Graduate enrollment also saw an increase, with 3.3% growth and an additional 100,000 students, bringing the total number to 3.2 million. Despite the upward trend, the NSCRC is contemplating discontinuing their preliminary enrollment reports due to their questionable relevance in the post-COVID-19 era. As the education sector gears up for the approaching "demographic cliff," predicting a double-digit decline in high school graduates over the next 15 years, the sustainability of this college enrollment progress becomes a significant concern.
