Preparing for the risks of the present and the future: A guide

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) has released a comprehensive report, titled "Raising Awareness of Earth System Tipping Points," which identifies the top drivers that can lead to compounding effects and cascading impacts across various risks in Europe. The report, which forms part of the Anticipation, Risks, and Resilience portfolio, analysed a broad range of inputs, including 38 reports from EU institutions, scientific publications, and expert consultations.

The report highlights several critical systemic drivers that influence multiple risks simultaneously and exacerbate their interactions across sectors. These drivers include climate change and environmental hazards, geopolitical tensions and instability, interconnected critical infrastructure and supply chains, social vulnerabilities and inequalities, and systemic complexity and interdependencies of risks.

Climate-related events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves increasingly trigger cascading impacts. For example, floods can damage water, sanitation, and transport infrastructure, trigger disease outbreaks, and overwhelm healthcare systems, which then lead to social and economic disruptions. Prolonged droughts can reduce river navigability, disrupt agriculture, and affect energy and water supplies, amplifying risks to ecosystems, public health, and economic activity.

Geopolitical uncertainties also amplify risks by intersecting with other crises, impacting infrastructure, supply chains, public trust, and political stability, which then cascade into broader societal vulnerabilities. Interconnected infrastructure and supply chains mean that disruptions in one sector can rapidly propagate through interconnected systems, affecting multiple other sectors.

Social vulnerabilities and inequalities also play a significant role in amplifying risks. Vulnerable populations such as low-income groups, women, children, and migrants tend to experience disproportionate impacts, which can deepen socioeconomic divides and reduce societal resilience, feeding into cyclical cascades of risk.

The growing complexity and interconnectedness of risks in Europe create systemic vulnerabilities, where one event triggers others across multiple domains in a nonlinear, compounding fashion. The report calls for enhanced anticipation and resilience-building strategies to manage these systemic risks effectively.

The report aligns with the EU Civil Protection Mechanism's disaster resilience goals and the European climate adaptation strategy. It also builds on the JRC's 2024 analysis of cross-border and emerging risks in Europe, which involved over 60 experts. The report emphasizes the need for better interoperability and coordination to capitalize on the diversity of risk sources and supports the EU Preparedness Union strategy.

At least five of the sixteen identified tipping points could be crossed if average global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 °C. Scenario planning should include the Earth system tipping points, thresholds that, if crossed, would lead to devastating and often irreversible consequences. Investing in foresight and scenario planning should be a priority, particularly for high-impact, low-probability risks such as solar storms, pandemics, and nuclear incidents.

In conclusion, the JRC's 2025 report provides a valuable contribution to understanding the complex interplay of risks across Europe. By identifying the key drivers that lead to cascading impacts, the report calls for a comprehensive EU risk assessment framework capable of accounting for multiple hazards and enabling coordination across sectors and borders with a whole-of-society approach. The JRC will strengthen the EU's capacity to anticipate and respond to systemic risks through the Anticipation, Risks, and Resilience portfolio.

[1] Joint Research Centre (2025). Raising awareness of Earth system tipping points. [2] Joint Research Centre (2024). Cross-border and emerging risks in Europe.

The Joint Research Centre's (JRC) 2025 report, titled "Raising Awareness of Earth System Tipping Points," focuses on nuclear incidents as one of the high-impact, low-probability risks that should be included in scenario planning.
Climate change and environmental hazards, identified as critical systemic drivers, are among the top drivers that can lead to compounding effects and cascading impacts across various risks in Europe, as highlighted in the JRC's 2025 report.
The JRC's 2025 report also emphasizes the need for better education and self-development to understand the complex interplay of risks in Europe, particularly in the fields of environmental science, science, and health-and-wellness.
The European industry, business, and governance sectors should take note of the report's findings, as it underlines the need for improved financing and policy-making to address environmental issues and mitigate the risks associated with climate change.
As per the JRC's 2025 report, at least five of the sixteen identified tipping points could be crossed if average global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 °C, underscoring the importance of addressing climate change in the context of health, medical-conditions, and the environment.
The JRC's 2024 analysis of cross-border and emerging risks in Europe, which involved over 60 experts, builds on the JRC's 2025 report, providing a comprehensive understanding of the risks facing Europe and the need for improved governance, business, and financial-management strategies.
The JRC's 2025 report aligns with the EU's strategic objectives in disaster resilience, climate adaptation, and the European Preparedness Union, calling for a unified approach to risk management that prioritizes anticipation, resilience-building, and whole-of-society collaboration.