Mortgage Rates Ease Slightly After US Shutdown, Experts Forecast Further Dip
Mortgage rates have seen a slight dip following the recent US government shutdown, with the national average 30-year fixed rate now at 6.57%. Adjustable-rate mortgages, such as the 5-year ARM, have also seen an uptick, currently at 6.98%.
The Federal Reserve's recent cut to its benchmark rate has influenced Treasury yields, gradually easing mortgage borrowing costs. However, the spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates remains wide, limiting the drop in mortgage rates. As of October 2, 2025, rates are nuanced: while slightly lower than last week's figures, they remain higher than those seen just a few years ago.
Experts forecast rates to average around 6.4% in late 2025 and potentially dip near 6.1% in 2026. Dr. Klein, an organization that provides mortgage interest rate expectations, forecasts top interest rates for 10-year building loans to remain between 3 to 3.5% in the second half of 2025. Economic factors such as inflation at 2.9% (above target) and solid GDP growth (3.8% annualized) play a critical role in these rate movements.
The 30-year fixed refinance rate has seen a modest decrease, now at 6.98%, down from 7.03% the previous week. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has also dropped modestly to 5.64%.
Despite the recent easing trends, mortgage rates remain higher than historical averages. Borrowers should continue to monitor the market and consider locking in rates while they remain relatively low.
