Germany's 2030 Climate Targets at Risk: UBA Projections Show 224 Million t CO2-eq. Shortfall
Germany faces a significant challenge in meeting its climate targets, with projections indicating a shortfall of 224 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (t CO2-eq.) by 2030. The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) and the government are responsible for publishing annual emission projections and recommendations under the Federal Climate Protection Act (KSG) 2021.
The UBA published the 2025 projection data in mid-March, with detailed reports following in mid-June. The building sector is projected to miss its target by 110 million t CO2-eq. between 2021 and 2030, while the LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) sector is expected to fall short by almost 60 million t CO2-eq. by 2030. The industrial sector is projected to exceed its target by 73 million t CO2-eq., and the energy sector by 250 million t CO2-eq., both by 2030. The transport sector is also expected to miss its target by 169 million t CO2-eq. by 2030. Despite these shortfalls, the 2025 projection data suggests that the 2030 target of a 65% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 is still within reach. The Expert Council on Climate Issues (ERK) published a special report on the 2024 projection data, highlighting risks and uncertainties in the assumptions.
Germany's current climate protection instruments are insufficient to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. The UBA's 2025 projection data underscores the need for more ambitious policies, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors. The government must now consider these findings and take appropriate action to keep Germany on track to meet its climate goals.
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