Anticipates bountiful wheat yield according to USDA
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, predicting a record harvest for the 2025/26 season in the United States. The US is expected to produce a staggering 427 million metric tons of corn, a slight increase from the previously forecasted 425 million tons.
This anticipated record harvest would mark the largest corn production since 1933, as the harvested area is set to expand to 90.0 million acres (36.42 million hectares). The USDA has raised its estimate of the US soybean planting area for 2025 to 81.1 million acres, with an expected production of 117 million tons.
However, the global corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been revised downward by 2 million tons, according to the USDA. The agency has not provided specific reasons for the lower corn production forecast in Europe, but analysts suggest that the decrease is primarily due to a reduction in production in Southeast Europe. The USDA has reduced the 2025 European corn production to 55.3 million tons from 58.0 million tons in the previous month.
In international trade, the USDA has lowered its forecast for international trade of US soybeans by -540,000 tons compared to last month. Meanwhile, the US is expected to remain a significant player in the global market, with record corn exports of 71.7 million tons. The European Union, despite a slight reduction, remains a major wheat exporter, with an estimated export volume around 29 million tons for 2024/25.
Rapeseed prices have seen a significant rise, with the November 2025 contract closing at 473 euros/ton, and a slight increase on Monday, up 0.50 euros to 473.50 euros/ton. The USDA's monthly WASDE report states that global harvests for the 2025/26 season are expected to lead to lower end-of-season stocks (-1.14 million tons).
The USDA has not provided details on the impact of the lower corn production on the US corn market or the increased US soybean production on global soybean prices. Similarly, the agency has not specified which countries in Southeast Europe have experienced a decrease in corn production, nor has it provided details on the impact of the lower corn production on global corn prices.
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